Accounting for Uncertainty and Risks in Monetary Policy
This paper discusses the measurement, assessment, and communication of risks and uncertainty that are relevant for monetary policy. It provides a taxonomy of policy-relevant uncertainty related to the
Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience
This paper examines the drivers of the 2020-23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might
We review the design and communication of monetary policy strategies that take into account risks and uncertainty. A key element in a robust monetary strategy is the concept of risk management, which is the weighing
Retrospective on the Federal Reserve Board Staff's Inflation Forecast Errors since 2019
This paper examines the Board staff's inflation forecast misses over the years following the COVID-19 outbreak, focusing on a timeline of what staff members knew when and
Inflation since the Pandemic: Lessons and Challenges
This paper reviews the drivers of the post-pandemic U.S. inflation surge and subsequent decline, including the behavior and role of inflation expectations. The sharp rise in inflation reflected severe imbalances