Remarks at the Central Bank of Chile Centennial Conference, Santiago, Chile.

In-person keynote presentation for the 62nd Annual Arizona State University/PNC Bank Economic Forecast Luncheon, delivered by Kartik Athreya, Director of Research and Head of the Research and Statistics

This paper develops a framework to quantify racial disparities in earnings and employment that are not plausibly due to differences in productivity. Over an employment cycle, employers learn

How did the US become a land of opportunity? We show that the country's pioneering role in mass education was key. Unlike previous research, which has focused on father-son income correlations, we incorporate both parents

We study settlement frictions that arise from the need to finance negative balances through an over-the-counter (OTC) market. We derive a closed-form expression for the endogenous

It is well known that model selection via cross validation can be biased for time series models. However, many researchers have argued that this bias does not apply when using cross-validation

We show that the underlying source of inflation impacts financial market perceptions of the persistence of monetary policy tightening. Investors expect policy tightening to be more

This article presents a framework to monitor differences in real expenditure growth and inflation in real time, focusing on variations across the expenditure distribution.

Japan's pledge to invest $550 billion in the U.S. may end up being costly for the Asian country when the deal's present value and hypothetical investment returns are considered.

The United States announced new, higher tariff rates this year. Tariffs can affect supply chains, investment, and firms' input costs, resulting in supply-side effects such as higher inflation and higher unemployment. However,